Early voting has already begun for this closely watched midterm election, but political scientist Amber Boydstun said a media storm could also make a difference, especially for close races for U.S. House and Senate.
“One of the things that will be interesting is whether we happen to have a media storm erupt in the days before the election that distracts people's attention away from the core issues like the cost of groceries that they would normally be voting on,” said Boydstun, a professor of political science in the College of Letters and Science at UC Davis.
A media storm before the 2026 midterm elections
A media storm is a sudden, high volume of news media coverage that lasts for at least one week. Coverage in a media storm is so high that even people who don’t pay attention to the news have heard about the event. In recent research, Boydstun and her colleagues have found that a media storm is made up of three parts:
- Heat: A dramatic event or discovery
- Fuel: The political and cultural landscape, including similar items in recent news and current debates, that allow the event to be framed in a resonant way
- Oxygen: The available news agenda space plus attention the event receives beyond the reporting itself
Boydstun said that one example of a possible media storm in advance of the 2026 midterm elections could be related to the U.S. war with Iran. Since its start in February, 2026, this conflict has been covered extensively in news media.
In recent weeks news media have focused on conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian military forces have launched attacks on tanker ships. In October, the President announced that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.
A media storm’s impact is on the margins
While Boydstun does not have an analysis connecting media storms to voting patterns, she said that any effect would likely only be around the margins. However, in some states and congressional districts the margin could be razor thin. Ballotpedia has identified 12 seats in the Senate 46 U.S. House districts as close races in 2026.
In both legislative houses, Republicans hold slim majorities. In the Senate, Republicans have a 53-45 majority, and in the U.S. House they have a 218-212 majority. In the 2018 midterm elections, following the first year of Donald Trump’s first presidency, Democrats gained 40 congressional seats and control of the U.S. House. A president’s party losing seats in the midterms following his election is an example of the “presidential penalty.”
“We know that when there's a media storm it really engrosses people's attention,” said Boydstun. “We also know from decades of research that we're like goldfish. In general, we just we don't have long memories as humans or as political voters.”
Learn more from Amber Boydstun on Minds over Matters.
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