U.S. Senate races are increasingly decided by national forces rather than state-level politics or incumbency advantage. That makes election forecasts less certain than they appear, according to a new study in PS: Political Science & Politics by researchers at the University of California, Davis, and George Mason University.

Critics of voter ID laws and limits to mail-in voting argue that they reduce the likelihood people vote. Research in political science has found that this is not necessarily true. The biggest factor that determines whether people vote is their motivation to vote in the first place.

We spoke with UC Davis experts in history and political science about their worries and hopes for the 2026 midterm elections. Many shared a mutual concern that election results will be contested by either or both political parties. However, they also shared hopes that this election, whatever the results, would lead to a stronger nation and democracy.

How often do you talk politics with friends and family? How about with colleagues? Talking politics might lead to a disagreement, but political scientist Robert Huckfeldt believes that’s a good thing.

Can a sudden wave of news coverage sway the 2026 midterm election? Political scientist Amber Boydstun said a media storm could also make a difference depending on how close a race for Senate or U.S. House might be.