U.S. Senate races are increasingly decided by national forces rather than state-level politics or incumbency advantage. That makes election forecasts less certain than they appear, according to a new study in PS: Political Science & Politics by researchers at the University of California, Davis, and George Mason University.

Critics of voter ID laws and limits to mail-in voting argue that they reduce the likelihood people vote. Research in political science has found that this is not necessarily true. The biggest factor that determines whether people vote is their motivation to vote in the first place.

We spoke with UC Davis experts in history and political science about their worries and hopes for the 2026 midterm elections. Many shared a mutual concern that election results will be contested by either or both political parties. However, they also shared hopes that this election, whatever the results, would lead to a stronger nation and democracy.

How often do you talk politics with friends and family? How about with colleagues? Talking politics might lead to a disagreement, but political scientist Robert Huckfeldt believes that’s a good thing.

Can a sudden wave of news coverage sway the 2026 midterm election? Political scientist Amber Boydstun said a media storm could also make a difference depending on how close a race for Senate or U.S. House might be.

Supreme Court rulings in recent years have ended key protections in the Voting Rights Act, potentially resulting in losses of representation for Black voters in southern states. Historian Gregory Downs said that these changes could be similar to the end of Reconstruction protections after the Civil War.

After nearly every midterm election following a new president taking office, his party loses legislative seats. While 2026 is unique, with nearly unprecedented efforts to change how voters elect their leaders, Republican losses are still likely despite these efforts to stem them.

Sociologist Ariana Valle spoke with 112 Latina and Puerto Rican activists in central Florida during the 2016 presidential election and learned how they supported their communities in a region politically and racially hostile to Latinos. The study was published recently in the UC Press journal Aztlan.

For this edition of Books of the Month, as protests and political divides continue to disrupt lives across the U.S., we’ve selected books that grapple with these issues, telling stories of both survival and resistance.

What happens when “efficiency” comes at the expense of people? In his new book, American Carnage, Journalist and UC Davis Writing Center lecturer Sasha Abramsky examines the human cost of DOGE cuts during the second Trump administration. From lost healthcare to erased pensions, Abramsky focuses on the lived experiences behind policy decisions and reflects on empathy, free speech and the state of journalism today.